Thanks to the Pennsylvania election integrity alliance and Jeff O’Donnell for reminding me of the Help America Vote Verification system (HAVV) and its important role in revealing potential voter registration fraud. HAVV is required under the Help America Vote Act (HAVA). You can find information about HAVV here.
Under HAVA, prospective voters who do not present a valid driver’s license when they attempt to register can have their information verified by checking their name, date of birth, and the last four digits of their Social Security Number (SSN). This check is automatic and done through the Social Security Administration (SSA).
The way it works is that whenever a verification request is made (for the purpose of voter registration) the SSA compares the data provided with their data for a match. They record whether; there isn’t a match (no such person in the SSA database), there is a match (the person exists), and if the person is alive or dead.
Data on verification requests dating back to 2014 can be found at the same link above.
The HAVV data can be used to estimate how many new voter registrations are attempted, and how many are fraudulent. Keep in mind that this database does not record any information for registrations submitted by individuals who have a valid driver’s license. This group should be larger than the group found in the HAVV data, based on the assumption that there are more drivers than non-drivers. However, looking at the data, this is hard to believe.
The reason is that some states have so many registration requests from “non-drivers” (no valid ID) that it is hard to imagine an even larger number of requests from legitimate drivers.
An oddity of the list is that the majority of the most suspicious states (UT, WY, MS, ND, TX, AZ, AK, GA, MT) are red states, and the least suspicious (DL, SC, ME, NM, MI, WI, CT) are blue. Almost as if someone is trying to pad the rolls in red states as the first stage of an attempted takeover by infusion of fake ballots.
Utah has the highest number of HAVV requests per capita than any state in the US (44.69%). Meaning, since 1/1/2023, a period of only 15 months, Utah has had enough HAVV requests that, if successful, they would have added almost 50% of their existing number of registered voters to the rolls. For a state with a total population of 3,417,734 (children and other ineligible voters included), it seems strange to me that they had 1,527,279 HAVV requests between 1/1/2023 and today. Of those requests, 204,751 were non-matches (fake people) and 25,045 were real but dead.
When I try to imagine this situation, I assume that for every person without a valid ID who attempts to register to vote, there is likely another person with a valid ID who also attempts to register. So, if 500,000 people without valid IDs try to register, I estimate that probably another 500,000 people with valid IDs are also trying to register
If you apply that logic to Utah, that’s the entire population of the state, including non-voters, all of whom registered or tried to register in the last 15 months. Did the previous population move away in 2022, replaced since then by all new voters? It hardly seems possible, but the HAVV requests suggest a scenario like that.
More likely, there are a lot of fraudulent registration requests, like so many missiles from Lebanon, fired in the hopes of striking a target. Some, the majority, make it through. Even these bother me because the numbers are so high. The fact that a matching name, DOB, and SSN (last 4 digits) was found is small comfort when the number of matches is so large that it indicates a near 100% turnover of registered voters in the last 15 months.
Of course, some of my assumptions could be wrong. What if none of the registration attempts were made by people with valid Driver’s licenses? Then, we’re still looking at almost half of all registered voters being newly registered in the last 15 months. That is implausible based on population growth and the number of people without valid licenses. I’ve been to Utah. Like most states in the US, it is nearly impossible to function without a car.
According to the census, Utah’s population increased by 18.37% between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2023. This is an added 146,118 people. The number of fake people who tried to register in the 15 month window I’m looking at is 204,751. The number of matches (valid IDs) in that same window is 1,322,528. How? I feel like I’m watching a David Copperfield show in Vegas as I read these figures.
The only other potentially legitimate answer I can think of is that many of these requests represent multiple attempts to register by the same person. Even then, the number of matches, which should be unique, is far too large for the population growth rate of the state.
Although other states aren’t as bad as Utah, they are bad enough to raise eyebrows. Utah’s growth rate (4.47%) is almost exactly one-tenth of their HAVV transaction rate (44.67%). The disparity is even worse in Montana, with a growth rate of 1.25% and a HAVV rate of 44.55%. Missouri is about the same as Montana with a growth rate of 0.67% and a HAVV rate of 25.25%.
The most dangerous states have the most electoral votes. Looked at that way, Texas (4.66%/21.70%), Arizona (3.91%/15.58%), Pennsylvania (-0.32%/12.94%), and Georgia (2.96%/4.55%) are the most problematic. Each have more transactions than can be accounted for by increased population.
Based on this information alone, citizens should be filing complaints in at least 15 states. On the face of it, a concerted effort is being made to introduce fake or unqualified voters into the system, almost certainly for the purpose of obtaining genuine mail-in ballots in those names, to cast illegal ballots.
My opinion, the states involved should have all of their election systems deactivated until this is fixed.